Sunday, August 28, 2016

Contrary to the plight of Don Rumsfeld, there are primarily "Known Knonws" when it comes to the climate crisis.

Study up. It can be good reading for the right reasons.

"World Energy Model"

Since 1993, the International Energy Agency (IEA) (click here) has provided medium to long-term energy projections using the World Energy Model (WEM). The model is a large-scale simulation model designed to replicate how energy markets function and is the principal tool used to generate detailed sector-by-sector and region-by-region projections for the World Energy Outlook (WEO) scenarios. Developed over many years, the model broadly consists of three main sections covering:
  • final energy consumption including residential, services, agriculture, industry, transport and non-energy use

  • energy transformation including power generation and heat, refinery and other transformation and

  • fossil-fuel and bioenergy supply
Outputs from the model include energy flows by fuel, investment needs and costs, CO2 emissions and end-user pricing and is calculated for each of the 25 regions modelled in the WEM. An extensive effort is undertaken each year to incorporate energy and climate-related policies and measures into our modelling and analysis with details and sources provided under Policy Databases‌....

In "Other sectors" in Annex A has to include 'bunker fuel.' The marine areas of the world are under a different set of laws.

The marine use of petroleum is independent of any country. The emissions are not at one port or the other in entirety.
Marine fuel or bunker fuel is some of the dirtiest oil produced.
All I can say about this is that shipping is becoming expensive. China knows that and that is why it is purchasing companies within the borders of it's best customers.
Bunker Fuel Definition: (click here) there are two basic types of marine fuels - distillate and residual. A third type is a mixture of these two, commonly called "intermediate".  Distillate fuel is composed of petroleum fractions of crude oil that are separated in a refinery by a boiling or "distillation" process. Residual fuel or "residuum"  is the fraction that did not boil, sometimes referred to as "tar" or "petroleum pitch". Fuel for marine use in engines and boilers has the following types and grades:

Fuel Type & Fuel Grades Common Industry Name
  • Distillate DMX, DMA, DMB, DMC Gas Oil or Marine Gas Oil
  • Intermediate IFO 180 380 Marine Diesel Fuel or
  • Intermediate Fuel Oil (IFO)
  • Residual RMA-RML Fuel Oil or Residual Fuel Oil
23 August 2016
By Platts

...Tuesday price indications (click here) from the two bunker suppliers in Valparaiso were talked around $330-352/mt delivered, amid firm demand even after state-owned ENAP increased $30 its posted price week over week.

ENAP is the sole supplier for the Chilean bunker market. Sources say the refiner's posted price lags international oil price increases and is based on an algorithm that includes US Gulf Coast fuel oil and diesel prices, among other factors.

In addition to the hike in feedstock prices, high swells at the port of Valparaiso have put pressure on prices as suppliers have been unable to load product.

"Even with those conditions, we have sold good volumes of bunkers this week in the spot market because we still have demand from buyers unable to resupply in Peru or Ecuador," one of the suppliers said.

Although a port condition report released by the Chilean Army Tuesday showed the port of Valparaiso as open, it also released a special warning on high swells between Sunday and Tuesday.

This is a video from about nine months ago and shows swells at the shoreline of Valparaiso, Chili. This city was also effected by the earthquake last year. This is the Pacific Ocean effecting the economy of "bunker fuel." This is the climate crisis causing economic losses to this region of the world. 

If the ships can't off load the fuel the price will increase because the supply is low. That impacts shipping and economic losses occur because the cost of shipping increases.

This is from the publication, "National Climate Policies and the Kyoto Protocol, published 1999.

This is from page 29 of that publication. (click here)

This graph shows the primary drivers to the climate crisis. Seventeen years ago there was publication of an understanding of why the climate crisis was eminent and how to answer the gap in economic outcomes.

Let me say that differently. We would already 'be where we needed to be' from a dedication to these understood drivers of the climate crisis.

Think about that a minute. 

No Atlantic hurricane season in 2005 with 31 named storms. There is only 26 letters in the alphabet. No Katrina, Rita or Wilma of 2005. No Superstorm Sandy. No record setting weather records that kill people. No enormous tornado outbreaks. No dual tornadoes in the midwest. 

I want people to think about this.

In 1999 the drivers to the climate crisis was known. It would take dedication to the outcome of ZERO greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic sources to end any danger to anyone in the USA. Katrina would be six years away and we had time.

That same page goes on to read this:

..."CO2 emissions have almost exactly kept pace with population growth."...

This is anthropogenic warming of Earth. Understand that reality. If this warming is anthropogenic then it will reverse with the habits of people and the change they need to make in energy sources.

..."Although GDP per capita has increased, energy intesity of the economy (TFC/GDP), and carbon intensity of energy supply (CO2/TPES), have decreased, mostly reflecting improved energy efficiency and fuel switching."...

We were working on it. We knew what we had to do, but, the one factor most ignored is the increase of population and it's consumerism. The need to continue on the path of fuel switching will provide for population growth WITHOUT adding greenhouse gas emissions to the climate. 


We worked at changing the climate crisis outcome, but, we didn't change enough. We were still behind the curve and it is time to get in front of the curve by permanently changing the economy that emits greenhouse gases. 

This graph and it'a analysis shows us the world can do this, the USA can do this. We simply have to set the priority and move into the future of energy rather than lingering in the past. 

We can do this!

The Climate Agreements fall slightly short of tropical rain forest protections.

The Bramble cay melomy (click here) (Melomys rubicola) declared extinct in 2016 due to habitat loss due to rising sea levels. It is the first mammal known to go extinct due to human caused climate change.

534, p 631–639 (30 June 2016) (click here)
The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.

Do not measure the future in abstract if the present is already a known commodity.

According to "The Spiral" we are nearly at 1.5 C. The relationship between current global temperatures and the internationally discussed target limits are also clear without much complex interpretation needed.

If we are confident the current temperatures are near the 1.5 C measurement, then an assessment now will provide a better view of the future and 2.0C. The shortest distance between two points is a straight line. That means climate experts need to move quickly in making recommendations to countries to end their emissions. Currently, 1.5 to 0.0 is the straight line we are looking for. Earth's troposphere has that degree of urgency.

I am convinced Earth has been outgassing water vapor over the south pole. That is serious. Very serious. Earth cannot cool if there is less and less water vapor. The achievement to ending this warming is to radically change the greenhouse gas emissions of their countries. Now.

Scientists for far to long have allowed Earth to be Earth without insisting on responsibility to the deadly changes recorded and presented as evidence. The day of evidence is over EXCEPT for measuring the return of Earth's gaseous biotic balance.

Some scientists covet another Earth in another solar system as the potential next place for human inhabitation and mining the moon. That only distracts from the seriousness before us now. Planning to escape Earth's gravity is not the answer to ending the climate crisis.

In thinking about a straight line to ZERO emissions is the understanding Earth will be Earth and the decrease in gaseous greenhouse gases will be met with an ocean emptying CO2 out of it's chemistry. At least the acidifying of the oceans will reverse first and the oceans can be repopulated with fish species. Along with the end of greenhouse gas emissions, the oceans will also begin to reverse their warming as well. 

I like the oxygen produced by plankton and algae. It means a great deal to me. I only wish it meant a great deal to everyone else on Earth.

Yes, this is homework, to the extent one is interested.

IEA Online Summer School (click here)

These are "Webinars." They are posted online for those that could not attend the actual teaching session. It also demonstrates how perfect the global community regards the importance of 'getting it right.'

The IEA Energy Data Centre is launching a series of webinars on data collection, validation and use to take place over the month of July 2016. This 4-week programme will provide participants with the opportunity to learn more about energy data collection and statistics.
Participants may choose to register for all 4 sessions or for individual webinars. For certain sessions, participation will be limited and therefore priority will be allocated on a first-come first-serve basis. We kindly ask that participants only register for sessions to which they intend to participate.
All webinars are free of charge to attend. Participants will receive a certification upon completion of all 4 courses.  
For any queries, please contact Lucy Shedden at 

Storm surges, sea level rises and global warming

When thinking about storm surges it pays to realize sea level rise increases tides, especially storm surges. 

As realized with Hurricane Katrina, storm surges are driven by wind velocity. The point is storm surges will be higher no matter the wind velocity. So, if Louisiana normally receives storm surges of a Category 1 hurricane that are 7 to 10 feet high, that will change to a foot or more higher.

Storm surges as seen with Katrina is not 'the norm.' The biggest and the greatest is always somethings Americans focus on, but, 'the norm' is far more frequent and just as upsetting.

Figure 1. A survey team found a damage trimline on the exterior of the Beau Rivage Lighthouse in Biloxi, Mississippi, at an elevation of 34.1 feet above mean sea level. This represents the highest High Water Mark ever recorded for an Atlantic Hurricane. Image credit: Hermann Fritz, Georgia Tech University.

By Jeffrey Masters, Ph.D.

Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground, Inc.

The highest documented storm surge in the U.S. (click here) occurred in 2005 during Hurricane Katrina, when Pass Christian, MS, recorded a 27.8 foot storm surge above mean sea level. The highest High Water Mark on record for a U.S. hurricane occurred in Biloxi, MS during Katrina, where a High Water Mark of 34.1 feet above mean sea level was recorded on the outside of the Beau Rivage Lighthouse (Figure 1). The surge was 22 feet high in Biloxi, so the combination of the tide (about 1 foot) and 11-foot waves on top of the storm surge created the 34.1-foot high water mark....
International storm surges larger than Katrina.
By Jeffrey Masters, Ph.D.
Director of Meteorology, Weather Underground, Inc.

The Bathurst Bay Cyclone, (click here) also known as Tropical Cyclone Mahina, which struck Bathurst Bay, Australia on March 5, 1899, is generally credited with the world record for storm surge. The cyclone's storm surge is variously listed at 13 - 14.6 meters (43 - 48 feet). The Category 5 cyclone was a monster--with sustained winds in excess of 175 mph and a central pressure between 880 and 914 mb. Mahina killed at least 307 people, mostly on pearling ships, and was the deadliest cyclone in Australian history. The eyewitness account of Mahina's record storm surge was provided by Constable J. M. Kenny, who journeyed to Barrow Point on Bathurst Bay to investigate a crime on the day of the storm. While camped on a ridge 40 feet above sea level and 1/2 mile inland, Kenny's camp was inundated by a storm wave, reaching waist-deep. On nearby Flinders Island, fish and dolphins were found on top of 15 meter (49 foot) cliffs. However, an analysis by Nott and Hayne (2000) found no evidence of storm-deposited debris higher than 3 - 5 meters above mean sea level in the region. They also cited two computer storm surge simulations of the cyclone that were unable to generate a surge higher than three meters....
A movement to recognize the most deadly storm in Australia's history.
28 December 2014
By Jack Kerr
The 101 ton schooner "Ladden" dragged anchor, but, survived Cyclone Mahina.
The deadliest cyclone (click here) in recorded Australian history could be upgraded to the most intense one to ever hit the southern hemisphere.
About 300 people died when Cyclone Mahina made landfall at Bathurst Bay, a popular spot for pearling fleets on Queensland's Cape York, in March 1899.
"It was almost a perfect cyclone," says Ian Townsend, an ABC journalist whose dramatisation of Cyclone Mahina, The Devil's Eye, was published in 2008.
Mahina's wind, waves and storm surge annihilated dozens of ships and left the landscape scoured.
Dead porpoises were later found lying on clifftops, thrown there by the massive swells the cyclone had stirred up.
People on Thursday Island, hundreds of kilometres away, say lightning from Mahina lit up the sky from one end of the horizon to the other.
On board the only ship to make it through the cyclone, Mahina's intensity was recorded at 880 hectopascals.
"This was an incredible storm, phenomenal in so many ways. It was like a ball of energy that was spinning across the Coral Sea," Townsend said....

Annex A

Energy (click here for webpage)

Fuel combustion 
     Energy industries
     Manufacturing industries and construction 
     Other sectors 

 Fugitive emissions from fuels 
      Solid fuels 
      Oil and natural gas

I think I covered most of it. Under fuel combustion the "Manufacturing industries and construction" was covered last week with the Wall Street slide and the percentage of greenhouse gases contributed from major companies. There needs to  be a culture change in those companies. They can find the energy they need that already exists. They also need to sponsor research specific to their needs that do not pose a danger to life on Earth.

I do not believe that is unreasonable. These companies have been scoffing up profits in the millions and billions. It is time they solve their own problems while seeking a ZERO greenhouse gas emissions goal. We all live on this planet together, it is time we all were responsible and not just dump these problems on consumers. Denying the problems generated by companies doesn't solve anything.


"Other sectors of fuel combustion" 

This annual publication (from IEA - International Energy Agency) ... 
...contains, for more than 140 countries and regions:
     - estimates of CO2 emissions from 1971 to 2013
     - selected indicators such as CO2/GDP, CO2/capita and CO2/TPES (Total                                                                                  Primary Energy Supply)
     - a decomposition of CO2 emissions into driving factors
     - CO2 emissions from international marine and aviation bunkers, and other                 relevant information.

This is also a source of information from the IEA, "2015 Edition of CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion." (click here). This publication can be a guide in the way the international community thinks about energy and reaching ZERO emissions.

From page 4 of the 2015 edtion:

Revisions to data: People’s Republic of China In September 2015, the National Bureau of Statistics of China published China’s energy statistics for 2013, as well as revised statistics for the years 2000 to 2012. NBS supplied the IEA with detailed energy balances for 2011 to 2013. Using these, the IEA revised its 2011-2013 data based on these newly available figures, as published in this document. The revisions show significant changes both on the supply and demand side for a number of energy products, resulting in breaks in time series between 2010 and 2011. Revised data for the years 2000-2010 will be published in the next edition of this publication. The revised energy balances released by the NBS integrate findings from a national economic census for all years since 2000. These revised data solve several detailed issues, most importantly the unallocated coal demand that appeared in the recent years of the Chinese energy balance (shown as statistical difference), has been primarily allocated to final consumption in the industrial sector. 

Regardless of all the scapegoating of China by USA politicians; China is still not a first world country. It is defined internationally as an "emerging economy." That means some, not all, of China's methodologies and reporting may not be state of the art. Does that mean China gets a free ride? No. It means the IEA will look at China's methodologies of reporting and run their own statistics to validate or suggest changes to the Chinese reporting. I do not believe China intends to deceive or bend the rules. It is an emerging nation and they widely accept the suggestions by others. 

Americans should realize the United Nations is highly respected as a place where global powers come together to solve problems. To that end they join conferences, conventions and international committees to improve their standard of living, thus reporting to the UN conventions as well.

The United Nations is and shall always be a place for spring boarding authority to governments everywhere. The annual meeting where every country's leader reports on issues that concern them. The world's conscience develops at the United Nation and within the UN Security Council. 

The IEA is a place where countries can report their findings voluntarily. As a result independent companies and entrepreneurs may provide services for a better outcome depending on the reporting.

BASICALLY, it is all good.  

The Greenland Icesheet melt is significant and continuing. This year proved to have three important spikes in the melt.

2012 is a record year of melting in Greenland. It is the measure to the degree things are worse or not for the Greenland Ice Sheet, hence, sea level rise.
From 2012:
Nearly the entire ice sheet covering Greenland (click here) —from its thin coastal edges to its two-mile-thick center—experienced some degree of melting for several days in July 2012. According to measurements from three satellites and an analysis by NASA and university scientists, an estimated 97 percent of the top layer of the ice sheet had thawed at some point in mid-July, the largest extent of surface melting observed in three decades of satellite observations....
Climate data has to be assessed to understand this extensive melting. Also the ice remaining after the melt influences climate and the end of the melting. At any rate, without being boring, the ice melt in Greenland 2012 was a record setting melt of which a warming planet's effect on future melting may occur.
The latest assessment:
...According (click here) to an NSIDC blog post, the ice sheet saw three extreme spikes in melt by June 19. As a result, the pace of melting so far is ahead of the past three seasons, but behind the record melt year of 2012.
Coastal areas have been generally warmer than average, and sometimes extreme. For instance, temperatures in Nuuk soared to 24 degrees Celsius (75 degrees Fahrenheit) on June 9, 2016—the highest June temperature ever recorded there. Interior areas were slightly cooler than usual.
On June 15, 2016, the Advanced Land Imager (ALI) on NASA’s Earth Observing-1 satellite acquired a natural-color image of an area just inland from the coast of southwestern Greenland (120 kilometers southeast of Ilulisat and 500 kilometers north-northeast of Nuuk). According to Marco Tedesco, a professor at Columbia University’s Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, melting in this area began relatively early in April but was not sustained. It started up again in May and grew into the watery June scene pictured above.
Surface melt can directly contribute to sea level rise via runoff. It can also force its way through crevasses to the base of a glacier, temporarily speeding up ice flow and indirectly contributing to sea level rise. Also, ponding of meltwater can “darken” the ice sheet’s surface and lead to further melting....

A quick review.

aliphatic - relating to or denoting organic compounds in which carbon atoms form open chains (as in the alkanes), not aromatic rings

aromatic rings (click here) - also known as aromatic compounds or arenes (click here) are hydrocarbons which contain benzene, or some other related ring structure. Benzene, C6H6, is often drawn as a ring of six carbon atoms, with alternating double bonds and single bonds: This simple picture has some complications, however.

Below is benzene. There are three double bonds on the ring and three single bonds on the ring. All the atoms making this ring are carbon and all the attached atoms are hydrogen. The symbol to the right is the way a benzene ring is symbolized in any molecule. This particular symbol for benzene is inaccurate because single bonds are longer than double bonds. The double bonds are stronger and more difficult to break down into atoms in a chemical reaction. I am not going to get into bond lengths and chemical expressions that tell one chemist to another what is going on in a reaction called a "chemical equation." It is just good to know what the average carbon compounds look like in the real world of chemistry.

It's Sunday Night

"Octane Warriors" by Tankard on the album "Thirst" (click here for official website - thank you)

Roads deserted, and motors run cold
Civilization in lack of black gold
Nationwide the engines stand still
Energy crisis, we're paying the bill

Year 2060
No fuel means war
The world is in upheaval
All empty reservoirs
OPEC embargoes
Inflation's high
Refineries not working
And politicians lie

I'm trying to survive
Out in the desert wastelands
My memories are fading
How peaceful life once was

Chasing down highways
No food, just guns
Society is crumbling
So many on the run

Welcome to the oil-wars!
Welcome to the oil-wars! No flame - no game!
Welcome Octane Warriors!
Making our own laws - in high octane!

Gangs of marauders
Fight bloody fights
For gasoline and diesel
Mankind trapped in the night

I'm trying to survive
Out in the desert wastelands
My memories are fading
How peaceful life once was

Billions of barrels
The Saudis lost
Nobody can eat money
Greed causes higher costs

Welcome to the oil-wars!
Welcome to the oil-wars! No flame - no game!
Welcome Octane Warriors!
Making our own laws - in high octane!

Roads deserted, and motors run cold
Civilization in lack of black gold
Nationwide the engines stand still
Energy crisis, we-re paying the bill

Year 2060
No fuel means war
The world is in upheaval
All empty reservoirs

Welcome to the oil-wars!
Welcome to the oil-wars! No flame - no game!
Welcome Octane Warriors!
Making our own laws - in high octane!
Welcome to the oil-wars!
Welcome to the oil-wars! No flame - no game!
Welcome Octane Warriors!
Making our own laws - in high octane!

...and what really gets me, is these losers don't even pay taxes!!!!

I don't believe in political correctness either!

Joint Committee on Taxation 

April 10, 2015
By Ben Steverman

Some $1.4 trillion in individual income taxes (click here) are due to the IRS on April 15. But for many Americans, that’s only the half of it. A new report from the U.S. Congress’s Joint Committee on Taxation shows that looking only at income taxes misses most of what we pay to the federal government each year. 
The average American pays an income tax rate of 10.1 percent, the Joint Committee shows, although that varies quite a bit depending on income: 
Ten percent seems low, doesn't it? The official income tax rates start at 10 percent and go all the way to 39.6 percent. The Joint Committee is also accounting for lots of income that never gets taxed, such as Medicare and Social Security benefits, employer-paid insurance, and the employer portion of payroll taxes. Also, taxpayers pay the highest rates, above 28 percent, only on earned income above $200,000 or so. The IRS takes far less from the first $200,000 earned, especially after deductions, and from investment income. Finally, as the chart shows, many poor Americans pay zero taxes and even get money back: About 32 million people benefit from that Earned Income Tax Credit. ...

The heifers actually have to be educated about how to stay a virgin? Really?

Women and Poverty, State by State, 2014 (click here)

August 26, 2016
By Jennifer Ludden

Orientation at Arkansas Tech University (click here) this year included a surprising topic for a Bible Belt state that pushes abstinence-only in high school. Every freshman was shown a newly produced video in which real students talk about the struggle of an unplanned pregnancy, and the challenge of staying in school as a parent.
"I lost a lot of friends," says one young woman in the video who had dreamed of becoming a surgeon. A young man says he "went from not having any responsibility to having a full-time responsibility," while another laments that Friday nights are no longer spent with friends but at home "watching Dora. A lot of Dora."
The message is clear, and it will come up again throughout the year: in a college success course, in group chats in dorms, at a slew of events during Sexual Health Week.
Why in college? Arkansas has the nation's highest rate of teen births, but most of them — here and nationally — are actually to young adults, 18 and 19 years old....

Oh, you mean the heifer had a defective kid. Not my problem.

The sad saps in the USA need to stop spending millions and billions on pathetic issues. There are only a few babies involved and it does not warrant spending all that money.

August 27, 2016
Washington, United States (AFP) – US President Barack Obama (click here)  called on Congress Saturday to step up funding to combat the Zika virus, warning that delay is putting more Americans at risk.
Obama's latest appeal, in his weekly radio address, came the day after the US authorities expressed deepening worry about the spread of the mosquito-borne virus, urging that all donated blood be tested for Zika.
The Congress has denied past administration requests for Zika funding, instead redirecting funds that had been earmarked to fight Ebola, cancer and other diseases.
"That's not a sustainable solution," Obama said. The delay for more funds "puts more Americans at risk."...

Where is the Medicaid Expansion? In the USA when white women are in crisis Texas will pay attention.

There are treatments for all these issues, including drug addiction.

August 27, 2016

The maternal mortality rate in Texas doubled (click here) from 2010 to 2014. Dr. Lisa Hollier of Texas' Maternal Mortality and Morbidity Task Force tells NPR's Scott Simon it's a complex problem....

...SIMON: And why does Texas have such troubling numbers?

HOLLIER: We are very concerned about the numbers that we see here in Texas. In fact, Texas established the Maternal Mortality Review Task Force in 2013 to further investigate the potential causes for the rising maternal mortality rate, and we have recently published our report.


HOLLIER: We find that African-American women are bearing the greatest risk for maternal death. In fact, their rate of maternal death is about three times higher than it is for women of other races and ethnicities. In the years 2011 to 2012, African-American women accounted for 11 percent of the births but accounted for 28 percent of the maternal deaths....

The graph below is from 2015. The USA has had a dismal record for maternal deaths and Texas always is among the states that have the highest percentages of maternal deaths per state. Texas completes ignores the fact women sometimes need help in birthing and giving a child a good start in the world. You know, it is just another heifer that can drop the baby in a heartbeat. 

November 18, 2015
By Christopher Ingraham
The United States (click here) ranks near the bottom of the world's wealthy countries when it comes to the number of women who die from complications of pregnancy and childbirth, according to new data from the World Health Organization. American women die in pregnancy or childbirth more than twice as often as women in Canada. Even worse, the United States is one of only a few countries -- including Zimbabwe and North Korea -- where the mortality rate has risen since 1990....

From Amnesty International in 2010. (click here) Everyone hopes an election year will finally bring about reform in the USA, but, it never does.