Thursday, December 08, 2016

The economics between Turkey and Russia is happening quickly. Of course, Turkey is NATO.

Only a day ago, Presidents Putin and Erdogan agreed to normalize relations. (click here)

It is perfectly obvious Russia had a hand in the 2016 elections. It is also perfectly obvious the American people need to pay attention to NATO and it's strength in the region. Ukraine could suffer more land loss and/or it's democratic identity. Europe has to be concerned over these rapid changes within the relationships between Russia and Turkey.

There are differences in the relationship between Russia and Turkey. The economic relationship has a long history, but, Erodgan is coming to terms with a military alliance with Russia regarding Syria. This is a very big change in understandings with these two countries.
December 6, 2016
Call it the anti-Ukraine pipeline, (click here) but after some fits and starts the alternative Russian gas route into the E.U. via Turkey is about to be made official on Tuesday in Moscow.
Turkey's Prime Minister Binali Yildirim arrived in the city today for a two-day visit at the invitation of his Russian counterpart Dimitry Medvedev. According Turkey's Daily Sabahnewspaper, Yildirim is also scheduled to discuss the Turkish Stream pipeline deal with Vladimir Putin. The Gazprom-Botas Petroleum pipeline was proposed last year by both governments but fell apart after the Turkish military shot down a Russian fighter plane over Syria. Relations were put on ice and have since thawed. The pipeline deal is the manifestation of cooler heads prevailing between the two old allies.
Turkey's leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan ratified the agreement this week. The deal was published in the official government paper Resmi Gazete and removes all legal restrictions to building the pipeline. The Russian side has not yet ratified the agreement, but that is expected this week. The most obvious stumbling block is Russia failing to remove sanctions on Turkey agribusiness, which could hinder the deal if Turkey is left to felt the relationship is not yet fully mended....

The anti-Ukraine pipeline serve agreement began to take shape in October.

13 October 2016

Moscow has ended the contract (click here) to maintain oil pipelines in Ukraine. The order was signed by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and details published on the government website.

According to the 1995 agreement, oil pipelines passing through Ukraine were operated by subsidiaries of Russia’s oil transportation monopoly Transneft. However in February 2016, the Ukrainian section of the pipeline was sold to a Swiss-registered company, International Trading Partners AG.

Thus the Kremlin said further Russian participation in the agreement is "impractical.” The deal was approved by Russian and Ukrainian antitrust agencies at the end of 2015....

According to the reporting in The Independent, Turkey is pursuing a relationship with Russia to end the very real potential of a spark that begins a world conflict between the USA and Russia.

I have long stated, Syria is an ally to Russia. That view hasn't changed. This move by Erodgan will facilitate Russia to work near the Turkey border without concern to any conflict.

The USA does not belong in Syria. As far as I am concerned the USA is carrying on a proxy war with Russia. There is no room for that if Daesh is to be defeated. 

The United Nations has been taking measures for humanitarian aide, but, there is still a civil war in Syria. Assad will never change his capacity in Syria so long as the Alawite people are under threat in coastal Syria. Most, if not all Assad forces, have moved to secure the coastal region. The Alawite were forced into a refugee status as of about a year ago. The Alawite are a singular ethnicity within Syria that comprise about 13 percent of the total population of Syria. That measure of demographics is valid before the escalation of civil war in Syria.

The actual population numbers are about 2.6 million Alawites in a total population of 22 million. The Alawites are not the only small ethnic populations in the region, however, Assad is an Alawite and his family have protected that coastal population for over half a century. 

The history of Assad's overreach into Lebanon goes back dedcades. Assad has supported Hezbollah in Lebanon to protect the border between Lebanon and the coastal Alawite people.

The violence in Beirut was horrible. However, with political forces within Lebanon established a peace in that city and it has been sustainable with sporadic attacks on significant leaders in Lebanon. The country of Lebanon has been able to resist instability while Syria has simply become the central war with Daesh.

I think it is prudent to monitor the relationship between Russia and Turkey to discover adverse circumstances in Europe. At this time, a stabilized economic relationship is normal, however, the new military cooperation is new and could be a threat to Europe. Ukraine has approached NATO for membership. (click here) This is not a new posture for Ukraine. It has longed for economic relationships with Europe for decades. It is up to NATO to include Ukraine in a relationship that benefits it and Ukraine. To include Ukraine in NATO would provide for stability along the Russian border, but, there is no guarantee for peace there even with membership. The conflict still rages in that region.

November 29, 2016

Talks in Minsk on resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine (click here) have ended with the foreign ministers of Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany all saying no new breakthroughs were made.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said the November 29 meeting in the Belarusian capital concluded with negotiators far from reaching a political agreement that includes local elections -- one of the key points of the February 2015 Minsk Agreement.

But Steinmeier said he still hopes for progress on implementing the Minsk accords in order to bring an end to fighting between Ukrainian government forces and Russia-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine.

Steinmeier also held out the prospect that full implementation of the measures agreed in Minsk in September 2014 and February 2015 could lead to the lifting of international sanctions imposed against Russia over its role in Ukraine's conflict....

With Donald Trump in the White House Russia is looking forward to the end of sanctions. This assault into Ukraine by Putin and the overt annexation of Crimea was in complete violation of a treaty that allowed the removal of nuclear capacity of Ukraine as a Post-Soviet state. Currently, Ukraine is perfecting it's missile capacity to take on a greater capacity to protect it's sovereign borders. 

The elections in Ukraine is what facilitated this instability in the first place. The past President Viktor Yanukovych used his power to remove dilute the national military making it completely dysfunctional in any national security. Instead, Yanukovych instilled militias through Ukraine with Oligarchs he could trust. Those militias were being called up for service when Yanukovych left the country in shame. Those elections are coveted by Russia to return a communist regime back into power in Kiev. 

The civil war at the Russia border and the annexation of Crimea clearly shows Russia has no interest in support of any Minsk Agreement and will participate as a support to rebels within Ukraine under the nationalism of "Russia people." NATO is a vital partner to Ukraine and the new administration should not increase instability by shifting support for the Kiev government.

If Trump goes forward with idiotic ideas of dissolving NATO there needs to be real questions by the USA Congress to determine his fitness to serve as president. NATO is a strong alliance and is vital to the interests of the USA.

17 October 2016

The US and Russia could drive the world into a global war if the conflict in Syria is not resolved, Turkey has warned. (click here)


Tensions have become increasingly heightened between Washington and Moscow in recent weeks. Last week, the US and UK warned Russia and its ally the Syrian government that new economic sanctions could be imposed if the bombing of Syria's besieged Aleppo continues.
On Sunday, Russia condemned Washington for making “unprecedented” threats of cyber attacks following accusations by the Obama administration that Moscow had hacked computers belonging to American political organisations....