Saturday, October 24, 2015

The odds remain incredibly small...Excuse me?t The odds?

It looks as though high school parents have a new Football pool; "Well my child live to vie for the NFL?

October 24, 2015
By Mike Florio

In most respects, (click here) I miss the fact that my son no longer is in high school. In one very important respect, I don’t miss it at all.
I don’t miss spending three hours or so every Friday night worrying that he’s going to be seriously injured, or worse, playing football.
Injuries happen at every level of the game. Deaths happen all too frequently at the high school level of the game. Via Deadspin, a 17-year-old Chicago boy named Andre Smith died early Friday after taking a hit on the last play of a Thursday night game.
That’s seven deaths for high-school football players this year. But there’s no national outcry, no demand for investigations or regulations or anything other than a candlelight vigil for the victim, a discreet exhale from any parents in the community who aren’t burying a son, and a quiet hope that the next football player who dies on the field won’t be the football player who lives in their house.
The odds remain incredibly small, given the number of high-school football programs in the United States. As Deadspin notes, the 2015 numbers aren’t out of whack, which means that losing seven young lives to football before Halloween is just another year in the shared American experience....

Since Hurricane Floyd I have considered the outer bands as important in evacuations as the eye.

People need time and predicting the the arrival of the outer bands are just as important, if not more so, as the arrival of the eye wall.

October 24, 2015

Hurricane Patricia, (click here) the most poweful hurricane ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere, severely weakened overnight after it made landfall in the Mexican state of Jalisco. The storm was downgraded to a tropical storm early Saturday morning, and the National Weather Service downgraded it again to a tropical depression at 10 a.m. local time.

While officials have warned that the massive rainfall brought by Patricia could still cause flooding and landslides, residents in most of the states where the storm made landfall awoke to find minimal damage.

Yesterday, there was reporting on "The Weather Channel" by an onsite weather journalist about clear skies and no rain followed by severe wins and then the landfall of the eye/center. The pressures were down to 930 millibars through out the landfall.

There were many bands and Patricia was more classic, but, not identically a class storm than Joaquin. The bands most likely were moving at a very high velocity and would carry the characteristic of an eye wall. So, there would be what seemed like a repeating eye wall.

There have been 28 named storms in the East Pacific this year. (click here)

Hurricane Floyd, (click here) a category five, had torrential rains. The rains of the peripheral storm arrived to the east coast of the USA a full twelve hours before the eye. People were trapped by the rain, not the eye wall. People drown because they had no idea of the  of storm arrival and it's most dangerous part. The eye wall can kill from high velocity winds, but, the flooding kills with it's first evidence of arrival. And the area Floyd covered was enormous. The diameter was over 500 miles across. The drive from Washington, DC is about that long.

To note: There were only 11 named storms in the Atlantic in 2015. A decade earlier there were 31 named storms in the Atlantic which included Katrina. That same year there were 17 for the entire season in the east Pacific. 

It is my contention there has been a shift in the locations of concentration of storms to the east Pacific because of the drag placed on the air mass of the troposphere by Coriolis and a hot planet. In the Pacific there is much more surface area to the ocean and allows more normal dynamics than the Atlantic.

The hurricane dynamic of North America, which has two coasts of these storms. The dynamic oscillated from 2006 to 2011, was stable in 2012 and flipped coasts in 2013.

Patricia winds were as high as 200 mph. Category 5 starts at 157 mph. The categories are not completely based in wind velocity, but, also the physical damage and it's central pressure in millibars. Category 4 ranges from 130-156 mph. It might be time to entertain where a Category 6 starts which can include the amount of rain delivered. 

In addition to its unprecedented 200-mph (320-kph) sustained winds earlier Friday, Hurricane Patricia now holds the record for lowest pressure in any hurricane on record. With a minimum central pressure of 880 millibars (25.99 inches of mercury) at the 4 a.m. CDT advisory, Patricia broke the record of 882 millibars set by Wilma in the Atlantic Basin almost exactly 10 years ago. Around 1 p.m. CDT Friday, the minimum central pressure reached its lowest point, 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury)....

The repeated spiral across nature and the universe

Starburst Galaxy Messier 94

This image shows the galaxy Messier 94, which lies in the small northern constellation of the Hunting Dogs, about 16 million light-years away.
Within the bright ring or starburst ring around Messier 94, new stars are forming at a high rate and many young, bright stars are present within it.

Starburst Galaxy Messier 94 is 16 million light years away.

So explain to me how this happens? How can such things have the same shape across such a span of space?

Record setting Hurricane Patricia before it made landfall. 

At 8 a.m. EDT (click here) on October 23, 2015, the National Hurricane Center reported Patricia became the strongest eastern north pacific hurricane on record with sustained winds near 200 mph. This animation of images captured from October 20 to 23 from NOAA's GOES-West satellite shows Hurricane Patricia near western Mexico. Credit: NASA/NOAA GOES Project